This Diwali, we present a portfolio that reflect both sector-specific and stock-specific opportunities. With 2 solid mega-caps anchoring the portfolio and a mix of mid and small caps offering growth potential, this selection balances stability with upside. These picks align with evolving market trends, aiming to deliver meaningful returns while managing risks effectively.
| Company Name | Market Cap Type | LTP* | Target Price | Potential Upside (%) | Time Horizon |
| HCL Technologies Ltd. | Large Cap | 1,822 | 2,277 | 25% | Till Next Diwali |
| IndusInd Bank Ltd. | Large Cap | 1,274 | 1,643 | 29% | Till Next Diwali |
| Max Healthcare Institute Ltd. | Mid Cap | 923 | 1,236 | 34% | Till Next Diwali |
| Kalyan Jewellers Ltd. | Mid Cap | 675 | 823 | 22% | Till Next Diwali |
| Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Ltd. | Small Cap | 398 | 509 | 28% | Till Next Diwali |
1. HCL Technologies Ltd.
Consolidation Breakout
HCLTECH broke out of a multi-year consolidation pattern, surpassing the trend line resistance of 1,700 with a bullish cup-and-handle formation and strong volumes, signaling a robust breakout.
Support and Entry Levels
The previous resistance at 1,700 now serves as support, with ideal entry at current levels and stop-loss between 1,570 – 1,535.
Technical Indicators and Upside
RSI (14) shows a bullish shift, and the stock trades above its 21 & 50 EMA with an upward slope, targeting levels of 2250 – 2277.
Key Triggers
Robust Pipeline and New Deal Wins
- With $2.2 billion in new deals in Q2FY25, the company has a strong backlog that ensures revenue visibility for the coming quarters.
- Manufacturing, healthcare, and BFSI sectors will continue to fuel demand, supported by digital transformation projects.
Sustainable Margins and Operational Efficiency
- EBIT margins at 18.6% show HCL’s ability to manage costs effectively, even with wage hikes and currency fluctuations.
- Continued innovation in high-margin software products will further support profitability.
Discretionary Spending Recovery and Global Tailwinds
- As global economic conditions stabilize, sectors like BFSI and manufacturing are expected to increase IT spending.
- HCL is well-positioned to capture this opportunity with its diversified portfolio and global presence, despite potential geopolitical risks.
Broad-Based Growth with Sector Recovery
- IT services, engineering, and product platforms are showing steady growth, positioning HCL to benefit from improving global demand.
- As automotive and aerospace segments recover, ER&D is expected to regain momentum, further boosting revenues.
GenAI and SAP modernization driving demand
- HCL’s focus on Generative AI solutions (like GenAI Force) and SAP S/4HANA migration aligns with long-term digital transformation trends.
- Increasing adoption of AI-led solutions across industries ensures sustained deal inflows and competitive advantage.
2. IndusInd Bank Ltd.
Rising Wedge Pattern
IndusInd Bank is trading within a rising wedge pattern, currently finding support at the lower boundary, maintaining a structure of higher highs and higher lows since March 2020.
Technical Indicators
The stock trades consistently above the 50-week EMA, and RSI (14) shows a higher low formation, taking support along the upward trend line on the monthly chart.
Entry and Target Levels
Entry is suggested at current levels, with support around 1,145 – 1,110. The upside potential is capped between 1,623 – 1643.
Key Triggers
Expanding Retail and MSME Lending
- With targeted growth in retail loans and MSME segments, the bank aims for a medium-term loan growth of 18-22% YoY.
- The focus on vehicle financing and expanding home loans ensures continued growth as economic activity picks up.
Recovery in Microfinance and Credit Card Segments
- While current slippages in microfinance and credit cards impacted performance, these are expected to normalize by H2FY25.
- Proactive risk management and improved collections position the bank for stronger growth in unsecured lending segments.
Margin Resilience and Operational Efficiency
- Despite rising deposit costs, NIM remains steady at 4.3%, supported by the bank’s asset mix.
- As operating leverage improves, cost-to-income ratios are expected to decline, driving profitability.
Balanced Growth Across Sectors
- IndusInd’s strategy to diversify its loan book with mid and small corporates ensures stability and reduces dependency on large segments.
- Increased lending to merchant borrowers and expanding retail deposits will enhance revenue streams.
Liquidity and Asset Quality Management
- A robust deposit base, growing term deposits, and liquidity coverage of 122% provide financial stability.
- The bank expects to maintain credit costs within 110-130 bps in FY25, reinforcing confidence in asset quality.
3. Max Healthcare Institute Ltd.
Bull Market Trend
MaxHealth is in a persistent uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows on a broader time frame, with a bullish pennant breakout confirming continued strength.
Technical Indicators
The stock trades above its short and medium-term averages, with RSI (14) showing a bullish range shift on the monthly chart, and MACD consistently holding above polarity levels.
Entry and Target Levels
Strong support is observed around 800 – 770, with potential upside targets at 1,175 and 1,236, aligned with the breakout and expected trend continuation.
Key Triggers
Strategic Market Expansion
- Max Healthcare is aggressively expanding in North and Western India, especially in Uttar Pradesh, with recent acquisitions like Sahara Hospital in Lucknow and Jaypee Healthcare in Noida.
- These acquisitions come with large land parcels, providing opportunities for brownfield expansion, which will minimize costs and allow faster scalability.
Capacity Growth To Drive Long-term Potential
- The plan to add 2,400 new beds by FY27 will increase the total capacity by 55-60%. This expansion supports sustainable growth, meeting the rising demand for healthcare services.
- Brownfield projects make up 79% of planned expansions, providing cost efficiencies and faster break-even timelines.
Favorable Industry Dynamics
- Growing medical tourism and rising demand in underserved regions like central and eastern UP offer significant patient volume opportunities.
- With India’s healthcare market expanding and government spending on infrastructure rising, Max can leverage these favorable trends to enhance market share.
Higher ARPOB And Improved Margins
- Max is enhancing its clinical offerings and focusing on niche specialties, expecting 5-6% CAGR in ARPOB (Average Revenue Per Occupied Bed) over the next two years.
- Investments in new specialties and operational improvements are expected to sustain EBITDA margins at 26-27%, driving profitability despite expansion costs.
Expansion into regions like eastern UP and Bihar positions Max to tap new markets, attracting both domestic and international patients.
Net cash position supports further acquisitions and organic growth despite capital expenditure.
4. Kalyan Jewellers Ltd.
Upward Trend
Kalyan Jewellers has been in an uptrend on the weekly chart, with higher highs and higher lows since June 2023. A recent breakout above the 650 level forms an inverted pennant pattern, indicating further strength.
Technical Indicators
Oscillators favor a ‘buy-on-dip’ strategy across weekly and monthly time frames, supporting bullish momentum.
Entry and Target Levels
Downside protection lies between 580 – 560, aligning with retested bullish levels. The upside potential is capped between 800 – 823
Key Triggers
Aggressive Market Expansion For Future Growth
- Expanding aggressively in non-south regions and Tier-II and Tier-III cities to tap into underpenetrated markets.
- Planned addition of 80 new stores in FY25, including international expansion (with its first US showroom), positioning Kalyan to capture new customer segments.
Growing Demand For Premium Jewellery
- Increasing focus on studded jewellery, now contributing 30% of total revenue, aligns with evolving consumer preferences for premium offerings.
- Higher-margin products like studded jewellery are expected to drive profitability as discretionary spending rises with economic recovery.
Franchise Model Unlocking Growth Potential
- Transition to a franchise-based expansion strategy reduces capital expenditure, ensuring sustainable growth.
- Asset-light growth will free up cash flows, supporting debt repayment of ₹7 billion over the next two years, enhancing financial flexibility.
Robust Financial Position And Revenue Visibility
- Consistent growth with 12% same-store sales growth (SSSG) and expanding customer base, with over 35% new customers in Q1FY25.
- Debt reduction efforts and improving cash flows position Kalyan to weather macro challenges and invest confidently in future growth.
Capitalizing On Favorable Macro Trends
- Reduction in customs duty on gold is boosting profitability and driving higher demand ahead of the festive season.
- Rising disposable incomes and urbanization trends create a favorable environment for long-term growth in the jewellery sector.
5. Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals Ltd.
Breakout Confirmation
Crompton Greaves recently broke out of a rectangle pattern on the monthly chart with significant volumes, indicating a likely continuation of its prior uptrend.
Technical Indicators
After the breakout, the stock experienced a time-wise correction, with a throwback to the breakout levels. The RSI shows a positive crossover, staying within the 60-80 range, signaling consolidation.
Entry and Target Levels
Strong support is identified between 350 – 330, encouraging buying interest. The stock’s upside potential targets are around 500 and 510, aligned with the breakout and expected trend continuation.
Key Triggers
Strategic Market Share Growth
- Crompton aims to increase its fan market share from 25% to 40% over the next 3-4 years by focusing on premiumization and product innovations.
- Expansion into North and East India will further boost growth through enhanced brand awareness and distribution networks.
Strengthening Product Portfolio With New Categories
- Focus on solar pumps and small appliances (like cooktops) to capture new market opportunities.
- Butterfly Gandhimati, a recent acquisition, is being transformed to improve profitability with targeted 7-8% EBITDA margins by FY26.
Efficiency Through In-house Manufacturing
- Increasing in-house production for fans to 70% to enhance cost management and operational efficiency.
- Integration of Butterfly’s manufacturing capabilities to streamline operations and reduce dependency on external suppliers.
Channel Expansion And Modern Trade Growth
- Significant push towards alternate and e-commerce channels, maintaining steady revenue with a ₹1 billion quarterly run rate from online sales.
- Exploring partnerships with regional retail giants like DMart and Croma, further strengthening its presence across modern trade platforms.
Capitalizing On Premiumization Trends
- Continued focus on premium product launches , including BLDC fans (energy-efficient models) to tap into rising consumer demand for sustainable solutions.
- Premium fans now contribute 24% to total fan revenue, with a target to increase this share to 40% in the near future.
