Weekly Picks 18th September 2023

1. Axis Bank Ltd

Counter	AXISBANK LTP 1026.8
Call	Buy on dip
Target 1	1080
Target 2	1125
Stop Loss	940
Time Horizon	1-2 months
Notes	Buy-on-dip towards 1000 & 970

Axis Bank is the third largest private sector bank in India. The Bank offers the entire spectrum of financial services to customer segments covering Large and Mid-Corporates, MSME, Agriculture and Retail Businesses. The Bank has a large footprint of 4,903 domestic branches (including extension counters) with 15,953 ATMs & cash recyclers spread across the country as on 31st March 2023

Previous Close	1020.9	TTM EPS	40.7
52 Week High	1031.8	TTM PE	25.3
52 Week Low	618.5	P/B	2.7
Sector PE	24.7	Mkt Cap (Rs. Cr.)	316,513

(Source: Moneycontrol, BSE, Fisdom Research)

Technical Outlook

(Source: Fisdom research)

The counter reached a new “All-Time High” by closing above 1000 levels for the first time.
The overall outlook for the counter is positive, as long as it stays above the key support level of 840, both in the short term and for position holding. In the short term, an important support level is around 950.
In the near-to-medium term, there’s potential for the counter to gradually move towards 1080 and, more significantly, 1125.
Overall consider buying this counter when it dips to around 990 or lower, but be sure to use strict stop-loss orders.

Open Interest Study

Expiry	CP	Strike	Open Interest
28-Sep-23	CE	1000	4593
28-Sep-23	PE	1000	3519
28-Sep-23	CE	1020	2641
28-Sep-23	CE	1100	2501
28-Sep-23	PE	1020	2287
28-Sep-23	PE	980	2078
28-Sep-23	CE	990	1953
28-Sep-23	PE	1010	1951
28-Sep-23	PE	990	1917

In the September Option Chain analysis, there’s a “Tug of War” going on around the 1000 level between the “Bulls” and the “Bears.”
As long as the counter maintains its position above 1000 levels, it’s considered to be in an “Range to up” trend, and the next significant open interest obstacles are at 1020 and 1100 strikes. Overall, the short-term outlook is leaning towards an “Range to up” bias.

F&O Strategy

Scrip	AXISBANK LTP 1026.8
Risk	Moderate
Ratio	1:1
Bias	Holding above 990 – “Range to up”
Max Reward Expected	₹16,125
Max Risk Expected	₹8,875

Action	Scrip	Quantity	IP	LTP
BUY	AXISBANK SEP 1020 CE	625	18s.4	18.4
SELL	AXISBANK SEP 1060 CE	625	4.2	4.2

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2. Federal Bank Ltd

Counter	FEDERALBANK LTP 148.2
Call	Buy on dip
Target 1	160
Target 2	170
Stop Loss	130
Time Horizon	3-4 Weeks
Notes	Buy-On-Dip towards 144 & 138

Federal Bank has emerged as the preferred banking partner for a diverse range of customers throughout India, spanning personal, NRI, and business banking needs, regardless of whether in urban or rural areas. The foundation of their exceptional performance is firmly rooted in a decade-long dedication to digital advancements. Their cutting-edge digital capabilities position them as a highly sought-after institution in the neo-banking landscape.

With the introduction of digital products and innovative digital marketing initiatives, the bank strategically positioned itself to leverage new opportunities more effectively, leading to an impressive 86% share of digital transactions. Their commitment to building a secure credit portfolio, prioritizing quality over quantity while maintaining organic and granular liabilities, underscores their dedication to the theme of capital conservation and sustainable growth.

Previous Close	147.5	TTM EPS	14.5
52 Week High	150.0	TTM PE	10.2
52 Week Low	109.4	P/B	24.7
Sector PE	24.7	Mkt Cap (Rs. Cr.)	34,841

(Source: Moneycontrol, BSE, Fisdom Research)

Technical Outlook

(Source: Fisdom research)

Last month, the counter broke out of a significant consolidation period that had lasted for the past year, rising above 140 levels.
After this consolidation, the stock closed at its highest point, suggesting that there may be more room for further gains in the weeks ahead.
Consider this counter at the current market price and on any price declines, as it has the potential to reach levels around 170 in the coming weeks.

Open Interest

Expiry	CP	Strike	Open Interest
28-Sep-23	CE	150	3173
28-Sep-23	PE	130	1299
28-Sep-23	PE	145	1230
28-Sep-23	CE	145	1166
28-Sep-23	PE	140	1146
28-Sep-23	CE	160	1124
28-Sep-23	CE	155	1020
28-Sep-23	PE	135	881
28-Sep-23	CE	148	566

According to the September Option Chain analysis, the stock faces significant resistance at the 150 Strike price and important support at 145 levels.
In the short term, the stock is expected to trade within a specific range. However, if it manages to stay above 150, it could attract new buyers and trigger short-covering, potentially leading to higher levels in the coming weeks.

F&O Strategy

Scrip	FEDERALBANK LTP 148.2
Risk	Moderate
Ratio	1:1
Bias	Holding above 140 – “Range to up”
Max Reward Expected	₹ 32,500
Max Risk Expected	₹ 17,500

Action	Scrip	QTY	IP	LTP
BUY	FEDERALBANK SEP 146 CE	5000	4.5	4.5
SELL	FEDERALBANK SEP 156 CE	5000	1.0	1.0

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