The Signal (weekly highlights)

1. Retail inflation in Sept falls to 4.35%

Retail inflation eased to a five month low at 4.35% in September 2021 from 7.27% year ago as prices of vegetables and other items declined, as per government data.

This moderation in prices is in line with the assessment of RBI’s who recently projected softening in retail inflation. Inflation was higher in case of fuel and light in September as compared to August 2021.

2. IIIP grows 11.9% in August

The index of Industrial Production (IIP) rose 11.9% y-o-y for the month of August as against 11.5% in July, sustaining a double digit growth for the fourth straight month.

The positive economic sentiment might be short lived amid sharp deceleration in manufacturing activity going forward due to the coal shortage-led power deficit. An acceleration in the year on year growth of industrial production and a stabilizing overall level of index reflects a return of normalcy in economic activity in the country.

3. IMF retains India’s FY22 GDP growth at 9.5%

India’s economy, which contracted by 7.3% due to the COVID-19 and is expected to grow by 9.5% in 2021 and 8.5% in 2022, as per latest projections released by the International Monetary Fund

India is doing well in terms of vaccinating its own people and this is certainly helpful in its economy. There is still room to provide more support if needed if the pandemic takes a turn for the worse, to provide it in a targeted manner to the worst affected households and firms

4. Airlines can now operate at full capacity

Airlines will be able to operate at 100 percent capacity from October 18, with civil aviation ministry lifting all restrictions on domestic flight movements.

A welcome move as there is pent-up demand combined with the upcoming festive season. Investors are quite bullish about the overall growth and demand for domestic travel.

5. FM says India looking at near double digit growth this year

India will witness close to double digit economic growth this financial year (FY22) which would be highest among the major economies of the world.

The remarks come close to the heels of many global institutions projecting 9.5% growth for India FY22 including IMF and RBI. Reforms in countries are happening in different stages.