The Signal (weekly highlights)

1. GDP grows by 13.5% in Q1FY23

India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 13.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2022-23 as compared to the year-ago level. The growth came over a 20.1 per cent increase in GDP recorded in the June 2021 quarter. It marked a complete recovery of GDP from the loss suffered during April-June 2020, the quarter worst hit by the coronavirus pandemic.

The government increased its final consumption expenditure (GFCE) by only 1.3 per cent after a 4.8 per cent fall seen during the June 2021 quarter. Imports grew at a faster clip of 37.2 per cent than exports which grew by 14.7 per cent in the June 2022 quarter. Consequently, trade deficit widened to 8.1 per cent of GDP during April-June 2022 as against a little below three per cent of GDP seen in the same quarter a year ago.

2. Government arrests fiscal deficit at 20.5% of BE till July 2022

Central Government arrested its gross fiscal deficit (GFD) at 20.5 per cent of the annual budgeted target during the first four months of 2022-23. At the same time last year, the government had exhausted 21.3 per cent of its annual deficit target. In absolute terms, the deficit during April-July 2022 amounted to Rs.3.4 trillion, higher than the last year’s Rs.3.2 trillion.

On the revenue side, net tax collections rose by 25.9 per cent to Rs.6.7 trillion during April-July 2022. Non-tax revenue receipts declined by 36 per cent to Rs.895.8 billion, while non-debt capital receipts, which mainly comprise of disinvestment proceeds, increased by 112.9 per cent to Rs.301.2 billion.

3. Output of eight core industries rises by 4.5% in July 2022

The index of eight core industries rose by 4.5 per cent on a year-on-year basis in July 2022.The growth was the lowest registered in the last six months. Of the eight core industries, six reported a rise in production, while two reported a fall in July 2022.

Cumulative output of eight core industries during April-July 2022 rose by 11.5 per cent, over a 21.4 per cent growth recorded during the same period a year ago.

4. Non-food credit growth improves to 15.1% in July 2022

Year-on-year growth in outstanding non-food credit disbursed by scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) improved to 15.1 per cent by end July 2022 from 13.7 per cent at the end of June 2022. Credit offtake by industry grew by 10.5 per cent at end July 2022, faster than the 9.5 per cent growth clocked at end June 2022.

Growth in outstanding credit disbursed to the services sector also improved to 16.5 per cent from 12.8 per cent in June 2022. Size of personal loans portfolio of SCBs increased year-on-year by 18.8 per cent in July 2022, at a faster clip than the 18.1 per cent growth recorded in the preceding month.

5. Passenger vehicle sales stay strong in August 2022

Passenger vehicle sales are expected to stay robust in August 2022 on account of large pending orders with various companies and production ramp up, according to a report by Emkay Global Financial Services.

Besides, two wheeler sales are also likely to improve owing to festive demand and inventory build-up with dealers. Commercial vehicle sales will uphold the uptrend, with robust growth in the passenger and cargo segments.