The Signal (weekly highlights)

1. Trade deficit expected to touch 19% of overall goods trade in FY22

India’s merchandise trade deficit is likely to touch USD 190 billion by the end of March 2022. It already touched USD 188.2 billion on 21 March 2022.

At current rate, trade deficit is expected to touch 19 per cent of overall goods trade in the current fiscal as compared to record 24 per cent in 2012-13, 23 per cent in 2011-12 and 20.5 per cent in the pre-pandemic year of 2019-20. While the exports have grown 37 per cent year-on-year in this fiscal so far, experts remain skeptical about its sustainability.

2. FDI inflow to India declines by 15% to USD 74 bn in 2021

In calendar year 2021, the foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow to India declined by 15 per cent as compared to calendar year 2020.

To promote FDI, the Government has put in place an investor-friendly policy, wherein most sectors except certain strategically important sectors are open for 100 per cent FDI under the automatic route. Further, the policy on FDI is reviewed on an ongoing basis, to ensure that India remains attractive and investor-friendly destination.

3. OECD keeps India’s GDP growth forecast unchanged at 5.5% in FY24

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has kept India’s real GDP growth forecast for 2023-24 unchanged at 5.5 per cent. GDP growth for 2022-23 is estimated at 8.1 per cent.

It is expected that he economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic to continue, the growth momentum remains fragile. Inflation, notably rising energy and food prices, and supply-chain disruptions present an ongoing risk to the recovery.

4. India achieves USD 400 bn goods exports target for 2021-22

India has achieved its goods export target of USD 400 billion for 2021-22, nine days ahead of schedule. Exports during the fiscal have registered a 37 per cent jump over the previous fiscal. The exports in 2020-21 stood at USD 292 billion.

During the current financial year, on an average, the daily exports amounted to approx USD 46 million per hour, USD 1 billion per day and USD 33 billion every month. Hailing the achievement, Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted that it is a key milestone in India’s Aatmanirbhar Bharat journey.

5. FMCG firms to hike prices as raw material price hike amid Ukraine war

The FMCG companies have decided to increase prices of their products as the war between Ukraine and Russia has pushed up the prices of raw materials. The cost of biscuits, a major Parle Product is expected to increase by 10-15 per cent at the end of March as the cost of key raw materials such as wheat, edible oils and packaging materials have increased.

Meanwhile, the company Adani Wilmar has decided to wait before hiking prices as global prices of palm oil have gone down to a certain extent. The CEO of CavinKare believes that prices of FMCG products are going to rise between 7-10 per cent as, input costs have gone up by 8-10 per cent.