The Signal (weekly highlights)

1. Exporters rise by 26.4% to USD 25.3 bn during 1-21 Feb

India’s merchandise exports grew by 26.4 per cent to USD 25.3 billion during 1-21 February 2022 as compared to USD 20 billion during the same period a year ago.

This surge in exports can be attributed to healthy performance by sectors including gems and jewellery, engineering, textiles and chemicals.

2. Reuters poll predicts 6% GDP growth in Q3FY22

A poll of nearly 38 economists conducted by Reuters between 21-23 February 2022 has projected India’s GDP to grow by six per cent in the December 2021 quarter.

This is a marginal downward revision in the estimates from the last round when the poll had predicted GDP to grow by 6.3 per cent. Economists opined that the country’s economy likely grew at a slower pace in the December 2021 quarter, primarily due to lackluster manufacturing output and investment.

3. Business Resumption Index scales record high in week ended 20 February

The Nomura India Business Resumption Index (NIBRI) advanced from 119.5 in the week ended 13 February 2022 to touch a record high of 122.8 in the week ended 20 February 2022. The index stood 23 percentage points above its pre-pandemic level.

The third wave appears to be over, growth concerns are not as the underlying recovery remains uneven, with services and consumption sectors sluggish.

4. PSBs to receive Rs. 150 bn from Centre in March 2022

The central government is likely to provide the budgeted Rs.150 billion capital allocation for state-run banks in the second half of March 2022.

Punjab and Sind Bank and Central Bank of India are likely to be the biggest beneficiaries of the latest funding plan. This on the back of improved profitability of PSB’s will be a strong positive for the sector.

5. India UAE sign CEPA trade agreement

On February 18th, India and the United Arab Emirates signed the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement or CEPA, which is the first free trade agreement finalised by the Narendra Modi-led government since it came to power in 2014.

It aims at increasing the non-oil trade between the two countries to $100 billion in five years from $45 billion 2021. The UAE is currently India’s third-largest trading partner and the second-largest export destination, after the US. While India is the UAE’s second-largest trading partner and the largest in terms of exports. India expects CEPA to generate 10 lakh jobs across labor-intensive sectors.